Last Counts of Banner Year on May 17th (Day 58)

We've wrapped up the counting after today's (Day 60) zero results.  2012 has been best year since we started counting following the MA protocol in 2006.  8892 fish are reported for the 58 days that the run lasted, including 10 days in early April when we stopped official counting after several days of zero counts.  On April 11th, 2012, the fish returned in earnest, and we resumed the counts on April 12th (Day 23), with several hundred fish observed each day for the next 2-1/2 weeks. 

As shown in the Year to Year Comparison, the 2012 count was 7300 fish higher than the average for the previous six years of counting, and nearly 460% higher than the average of the last six years. 

8892 fish counted over 90 minutes each day for the 58 days we kept records is equivalent to more than 71,000 fish that came through Mill Pond's ladder.  This estimate is conservative as it assumes the fish only moved during the 12 hours (7 am to 7 pm) for which we monitored and counted fish, and on all the peak days we observed fish in every hour of the day.

We had more than 50 counters participating in the 2012 count.  Some of the counters provided dozens of counts over the eight week period.  We had several rookie counters this year who also were able to participate in some of the exceptionally high volume counts during the peak days in mid-April, as well as several counters who have participated every year since formal counting began in 2006.

Thanks to the effective participation of so many Barnstable residents, we have a solid database of information for this exceptional year.  We introduced a new scheduling tool to allow counters to observe available openings online and volunteer to count at open times.  In accordance with the state protocol, we introduced the monitoring of local water temperature at each count.  This new data will ideally help us better assess in future when to expect herring running during the migration.

We started tracking saltwater temperatures to help us better project the start of the migration. 

We set up this new website as a vehicle to communicate to the counters and any other interested parties, to share our findings and observations. 

The following are some last thoughts from one of our 2012 rookie counters, on her last day of counting, which was a zero count:

"I've been so glad I volunteered to help out this year.  It's been a wonderful experience, seeing the fish, helping science in my small way, visiting with all the children and others that have come to view the herring. It's also been inspiring in a way, to stand as silent witness to the surge of life renewing itself as it has for eons and to contemplate our place in history as I stand in such a historically significant place.

Yeah, it's all good!"

Day 56 - Eight Weeks, and Still We're Seeing Fish!

Looks like we are mostly winding down, but still we are having some limited observations since we started in March.  I guess we won't double the 2008 totals, but 2012 is shaping up to be a remarkable year after < 500 fish in 2010, and < 60 fish in 2011.    This past weekend (including Mother's Day) we observed nearly the total counted in 2011!

There's still a respectable number of fish in the Middle Pond flume today - numbers are down from a week ago, but there's still quite a few there.

I guess I'll have to add another week of data collection in tomorrow's Year to Year count.  Who would have thought there would still be fish migrating eight weeks into it?!

Another Low Count Today; However....

The sun came out late in the day, and the herring started running again!  With the 2.5+" of rain we had over the last couple of days, we think the fish were tucked away and resting a little, with the heavy flow of water through the culverts under Rt 28 and Rt 149.  It's hard enough to swim upstream without this massive flow!

Today there are still significant numbers of herring in the flume entering Middle Pond, so we're planning on continuing the count.

Middle Pond Flume - 8:30 am May 10, 2012

Zoom View of Flume

We had 116 fish observed on Monday, May 7th, when the weather was beautiful and water flows were normal, so we want to be sure that we're accurately projecting the end of this record setting year!

Day 49: Triple Digits Yesterday, Single Digits Today....

With 8800+ observations, we may be finally nearing the end of the run, with a single digit total count today.  However, with yesterday's beautiful weather, we hit triple digits again!  This is a hard one to call, but we'll be counting until we have a zero count as a daily total.

Day 47 - Still Double Digit Daily Counts!

We've even still had some double digit hourly counts today!  We have not yet dropped to a single digit day since the run really started in earnest on Day 22.  We've had a week and a half of double digit counts, and every sunny day is a significant count.  It looked like it might drop off on Saturday, but with today's beautiful weather they continue to run. 

The previous longest count was 37 days in 2008.  We did stop counting for 10 days in the middle of this, but 47 calendar days and still the fish keep coming?  If the fish we observed in March were scouts only, and not the true start of the run, we've had a run of 25 days since we started seeing the fish again.  The latest that the run stopped in the last six years of tracking was May 18th (in 2007).  The 2008 run lasted until May 17th.

One counter today reported an osprey dropped down about 8 ft away from him to dive for a fish - he jumped a mile, but the osprey got his dinner!

"Washback" or Washing Back?

In the last post, the speculation was that those poor herring in the photo were struggling to make it up the river and falling back.  After a little research, I'm inclined to think that they very likely were spent herring who have already spawned and are working their way back to sea.  The strain of the journey and the spawning leaves them very thin, but they recover quickly after they make their way back to salt water (assuming they make it!).

So, as you're observing during these last few days, think about that as a possibility.  At least some of the thousands of fish that have made the trip are on their way back to Prince Cove and Nantucket Sound.

8500+....Was Your Day a Washback?

The herring are definitely running in smaller numbers, but still they come....we exceeded 8500 observations today! 

For those of you who are maybe thinking today was a struggle, for whatever reason, think about these thoughts from counter Bob Ph, after his Sunday count.

"As I was finishing up this afternoon, there was a big school of herring that had drifted along the top of the dam, with several washing over the dam into that side pool.  Then they continued over by the counting site, and a whole bunch washed back.  I guess the message is, keep the goal in mind, or you'll not get there!"

Sometimes it seems like you climb and climb, and sometimes fall back, but when you do, think of these river herring and all that they go through.....just pick yourself up and climb again!

2012 Run Slowing Down?

The counts over the weekend dropped off substantially - is this a cool weather slowdown, or are we close to the end?  After counts of 300+/day for 2-1/2 weeks, we've dropped to double digit counts daily totals for the last two days.  We're above 8400 total and counting....

We'll see how this plays out as the weather warms up again later in the week.

Day 38: 8000+... Let's go for 10,000+ and Double the 2008 Run!

Every time we think the run is finally dropping off, we have another flurry of big counts!  With tonight's cooler weather, we may start slow tomorrow, but it seems like every sunny day has great numbers.

The main question we're now getting as we continue to schedule counters is - "How long will this run last?"  If only we could answer that question - and others like "Is this the beginning of a revival of the river herring?"  It's only through the efforts of people like the dedicated counters supporting this run, and other herring runs around the state (and Northeast) that will help to answer these questions.

Our main source of information re run lengths, etc continues to be the Year to Year comparison sheet.  The latest a run started since we started keeping these records from 2006, was an April 20th start.  This run ran for 28 days.  The longest previous run we've logged was 37 days in 2008.  We're wrapping up the count for Day 38 - even if you discount the 10 days we took off, it's still a significant run length, and is breaking all the cumulative run records each day.  In all the previous years, the count dropped off to double digits for several days, and then single digits.  We're still recording triple digit days EVERY DAY, so it may go on for a few more weeks - who knows?

Day 36: We've easily passed 7000 today! Can we do 8000?

The cumulative total grows by leaps and bounds of herring leaping across the Mill Pond ladder!  Every day since the restart of the count, we've had at least one triple digit count for 10 minutes, and the trend continues!  It's not too late to get in on the fun - we had slowed down the scheduling after this weekend, but I think we'll have more fish into next week at the rate they keep coming!  Please keep tabs of the daily counts on the Year to Year Comparison page, located here.

For those of you who have been counting regularly, you may not have noticed the old herring run about 200ft north of the current run, immediately adjacent to the Galvin property.  Take a look at it when you next count - there's fish there as well!

Many thanks to Bob N, Betsey and Bob P for sending in the following photos of the old ladder!

Bob N's View - 18Apr2012 - Note the fish!

Betsey's View - 19April2012 - Fish in the pool!

Bob P's View - 24April2012

6500+ and Still a Substantial Run....

The 2012 run is slowing down a little, but still not showing signs of stopping.  We've only had one zero count in one hour since we restarted the count on 4/12, and we continue to have triple digit days, including today with partial data.

Will we observe 7000 fish or more?

6000+ Fish Counted by Earth Day 2012!

The weekend results are not yet fully reported, but we exceeded 6000 fish observations on Earth Day 2012!  The fish continue to be running, with at least a couple hundred observed again today. 

Let's revisit our counts, and project the daily total count, assuming the 10 minute profiles are a good approximation of each hour of fish migration.  For our peak day of 1483 fish over 90 minutes, that equates to 11,864 fish over 12 hours!

But that cannot be, you say?  Some of those fish were falling backward and were being double counted during the peak hours!  That's true - however, the fish were clearly running for more than 12 hours each day.  We had 70 fish logged in our 7 am count, and 100 fish logged in our 6 pm count that day, so those fish may have been jumping all night!

It's a safe bet that well over 12,000 fish jumped into the Mill Pond on that peak day!  We'll never know how many more than that there were, but that means there are tens of thousands of herring in Middle Pond and Mystic Lake now!

It's wonderful news!

Still hundreds per Day!

Yesterday we edged our total up to more than 100 Times as many fish as we observed in 2011, and we are at essentially 270% of the average of the last six years' fish count.  The year to year totals are posted here.  We are still at a nice steady flow of herring moving up the river today.  No more daily high records, but every day continues to be a significant triple digit count.  We've exceeded 5800 fish observations!

The saltwater temps have been above 57F for a few days now - see updated chart here - so the current migration includes the bluebacks (or is maybe all bluebacks?)

New Cumulative Run total record set today!

Things are slightly slower each day, but we're still seeing respectable daily totals in the hundreds of fish.  The new cumulative run peak was set sometime around mid-day today - today's counts are still trickling in.

We know the weather is going to degrade this weekend.  It's still important for the counters to still make their counts, even if it's a nasty day....we'll shut down the count fairly quickly when the count drops to zero, as we'll know it's over.

This weekend we'll be developing a new post with some pictures of the older herring run, immediately adjacent to the Galvin property.  Herring have been observed on both sides of this derelict ladder, so we're presuming some herring are traversing this more difficult route to the ponds.  If anyone has some good historic information, please let us know at herringcount@yahoo.com.

We'll also post some projections re the total size of the run to date - not just the 90 minutes of actual counts.  

Stay tuned!

63 Fish Shy of the 2008 Record....

We've had two great days since our massive count of 4/17/12.  The counts have dropped off a bit since that amazing day, but still are very impressive totals.   4/18 had a total of 695 fish, and today, 4/19, is complete with 426 fish observed. 

Some of the counters this morning sounded disappointed with their counts -

"Fish counted: 3 (three!)"
"I counted only 11 fish in my time slot"

Before you think these counts are disappointing, think about the counts last year.... I counted seven times and counted a total of 2 (two!) fish.  I think my counts were as good or better than average for the 53 TOTAL fish observed over 20 days last year.

The Current Run and year to year comparison page is up to date, and shows we are only 63 fish shy of breaking the 2008 cumulative total.  At the rate the fish are pouring in, we should break the record by mid-day on Friday, 4/20! 

Keep them coming!

4/17/12 - A Day Not to be Forgotten!

Tuesday, 4/17/12 is an unprecedented day, and great news for local outdoorsmen and fish enthusiasts in general.  The data for the date is all in, complete, and adjusted per the state protocols.  We observed 1483 herring make the jump in 90 minutes of counting!!

The largest single count was made during the 3 pm hour, when 366 fish were counted.  The second highest count was made at 2 pm when 342 fish were observed.  267 fish were counted during the 4 pm count!

Several counters have noted that the herring typically become sexually mature in nominally four years, so it is highly likely that many of these herring are the successful descendents of the herring that traveled and spawned in April 2008. 

The 4/18 count is not yet complete, and will definitely NOT lead to another daily record.  I think it may be difficult to replicate that feat again, but who knows?  We are well on our way to have a cumulative record that exceeds the 2008 banner year - who would have guessed that was possible a week ago?  Not me!

I'll be working behind the scenes to develop some interesting additional data and statistics to start to document this memorable run.

Thanks to all the counters for being so prompt in reporting this valuable data to date.  We're obviously still not done, and would appreciate more counters volunteering for the coming weekend and into next week.   Maybe these are just the alewives, and we'll have a second wave of bluebacks - who knows?

Kevin G would have reveled in all of this....perhaps he had something to do with it?!

New Daily Record!

On Monday, 4/16, we shattered the single peak day record for 9 counts set in 2008!  That previous high count for a single day was 588 fish observed in nine 10 minute counts.  The new daily peak is 828 fish for nine 10 minute counts!  With the partial results in for today (4/17), we have counted nearly 4000 fish in less than a week of counting! 

And still they keep coming and coming!  Today's numbers are still trickling in (unlike the fish!), but we are on track to well top Monday's daily count for yet another record - >1300 fish!  I think the late afternoon counters are all still in shock.....we have two counts this afternoon well exceeding 300 fish for 10 minutes! 

It's a real challenge to count the fish when there are so many - what a nice problem to have!  The whole town is enjoying the great news!  Parking can be a challenge, particularly in the afternoon hours, so plan accordingly to make your count in your scheduled hour.

One of our rookie counters took her brother, a lifelong Cape Codder, to the Middle Pond flume to see the herring on 4/13.  He had never seen the flume before, and he's a very talented photographer.  

He has agreed to share with us his amazing photos of our record breaking run here! (Click on a photo for a full size view, and then right or left to advance or go back.)

Also, please keep current with our year to year statistics here!  I had to reformat the page to allow for a daily four digit entry!

Hundreds Every Day!

Since we resumed the count last week, we have logged more than 300 fish making the jump each day!  Saturday had the highest daily log of this year's run, with nearly 500 fish logged as the daily entry.  We have now broken every year's total run (since 2006) except the 2008 banner year of >5000 fish!

2008 logged 5000+ fish in 37 days of counting.  We have logged more than 2000 fish in less than six days of counting, and they're still coming!

Please see the updated year to year comparison here.

For those who have not made it to see the Middle Pond flume this year, you are missing an incredible sight - hundreds of fish for as far as you can see!  The following is a video clip showing both the above and below water views of the flume on Friday, 4/13.  The flume has continued with hundreds of fish throughout the weekend and into today.  We would encourage you to take a look in person sometime soon!

Triple Digit Back to Back Runs!

The data is still trickling in from the first two days of a renewed count, but we had 378 fish observed in seven 10 minute counts on Thursday, and we've exceeded 300 as well today!  It started slow each day, but as the day moved on, the fish kept coming!  We've had more fish observed per day (with partial data only!) in the last three days than we had in any single day in the last two years!  We've exceeded the totals for both 2010 and 2011!  The single day counts for the last two days are larger than any single day counts we've had since the counting was formalized, other than the banner year of 2008! 

The year to year comparison is shown here.  (Click on graph to get a full size view)
The area shaded in green is the period when the count was suspended.  We did get some occasional reports from some observers when the temperatures briefly supported the migration.   Partial incomplete data is shown in red.
The values currently shown are actual values.  The statistical analysis will need to adjust a couple of the daily totals to reflect the state model.

On our first full day of the resumed count, the largest two counts of the day were done by one of our rookie counters.  After standing in the cold last week for a couple of zero counts, please see her email re yesterday's count:

"Very wild afternoon at the herring run.  Fish were going over the gate and under the gate, multiple fish were falling back down and then going over again.  Children were leaping and laughing, adults were interested and trying to talk to me. Blackbacked gulls and osprey were gorging.  I really tried hard to get 2 accurate counts (and enlist 2 future counters for the next generation).  Anyhow here's what I got:
151 for the 3pm
124 for the 4pm
58 degrees F
Here's a little shout out to Valentina & Richard, 2 wonderful youngsters that helped me count out loud as the fish went shooting by.  It was an excellent adventure for all of us. "

Believe it or not, her peak count was exceeded this afternoon by a new count from another counter for one 10 minute interval!

We would highly recommend all interested parties take a look at the flume entering Middle Pond this weekend.  Today it was full of fish, as far as you could see!  Stay tuned for a video from that view later this weekend!

Now we've got a run!

After a quiet week off, the herring have really started the run in earnest today!  Too bad we didn't start the official count a day earlier!
96 Herring were observed making the final jump in two 10 minute intervals this afternoon and early evening!  This number exceeds our 2011 total observation of 53 total fish over a 20 day period!

Hurray!  I'll show a quick summary of all the observations to date this year in tomorrow's blog post, but wanted to get the word out to all the counters that the fish are running now!  Please make sure to check the open slots and let us know if you can help us meet the 9 counts/day. 

Let's try again!!

So, we're gonna try again!!  We've been noticing that we have sporadically had fish coming through, so we may as well take those into consideration.  So, beginning on Thursday, April 12th, we will start the count up again.  For those of you already on the schedule, we are assuming you will pick up where we left off.  If you can't make any of the scheduled counts, please let us know!  For everyone else, we are in need of counters over the weekend.  We need:

We have split the day into 3 equal 4 hour sections:
7:00-10:00am is the morning section
11:00-2:00 is the afternoon section
3:00-6:00 is the evening section

On Thursday, April 12th - we need one counter in the evening section
On Friday, April 13th - we need 1 in the afternoon section and 2 in the evening section
On Saturday, April 14th - we need 3 in the afternoon and 2 in the evening
On Sunday, April 15th - we need 1 in the morning, 2 in the afternoon and 2 in the evening
On Monday, April 16th - we need one in the afternoon and 1 in the evening

For the rest of the schedule, we are wide open so please look and try to cover as many counts as you can please!  We realize that we may still have a lot of zero counts for the beginning of the run, but hopefully the water will warm up soon!!

HAPPY COUNTING!!!!

Still Waiting....

Well, it's been over a week since we officially suspended the count, and we probably should have suspended it even earlier.  We continue to monitor the seawater temps in an effort to estimate the most probable restart of the herring run.  Seawater temps in Cotuit Bay are essentially identical to what they were for this date in 2011, and the 2011 run started on April 17th.  We have received reports of herring on April 5 from two different observers, and we also had an observation of some herring late today.  We have posted the latest temperature plots here - it is very interesting to note that the herring made the trek at the same time the water temps at Cotuit Bay just touched 51F on April 5 and April 9.  With the cloudy weather forecast for the next few days, we will likely continue to watch and wait before restarting the count in earnest.

There has been one herring gull parked at the top of the Mill Pond ladder at some times over the holiday weekend, and today we received a report of an osprey looking around, so hopefully they are good indicators of a restart of the run. 

We appreciate those counters who check in occasionally with reports, to help us better assess the local situation, even when no fish are observed.

Counting to be suspended...for awhile!

Well, it's been over a week and no herring have been spotted.  We kept hoping that they would miraculously show up and we'd have a great year!  But, no such luck.  So, we are going to suspend the counting, for now.  But, be prepared for them to come back!  We think that they are just offshore waiting for the water temps to go back up.  The temperature in Cotuit Bay has been very cold!!! 

We will keep the schedule as is, and when they do come back, we'll just pick up where we left off.  In the meantime, if anyone is curious, please feel free to stop by the run and have a look.  Even take the temperature of the water and let us know!

We'll be in touch and let you know what is going on...

Saltwater Temps

Still no herring today - bummer.

We've added another new page with the plots of both Cotuit Bay and Eel Pond (Waquoit Bay, Falmouth) for us to further analyze to see if we can better assess when the temperatures may be conducive to the return of the herring.  While the weather seems to finally be improving somewhat, Eel Pond is now a bit cooler than it was at the same time in 2010.  Cotuit is now as cold as it was almost 3 weeks ago. 

For a view of the plots, please go to the new Page called "Saltwater Temps".  We'll be updating this page periodically throughout this period.

Is This a False Start or Just a Weather Interruption?

After a somewhat promising start, with the weather change at the beginning of this week, the herring seem to have stopped their run.  The statistics compared to prior years is being thrown off a bit with this big temperature change.    We don't have access to real time local saltwater data prior to 2010, but we're tracking the data from 2010 on to see if we can start to make some correlations to temperature from this point forward.  We want to try to further correlate activity to temperature right at the Mill Pond location, to better understand for future projections.

A new Page has been added to show the Current Run and Year to Year Counts.  As has been done in the past, we will attempt to project the total count based on comparisons to previous years; however, with this interruption in the run, we have tabled this projection at this time.  

We want to thank all volunteer counters for their patience during this cold period.  For the last five days, no herring have been reported.   We are cautiously optimistic that when the weather improves the run will restart.  Thanks to all for your patience and your support in reporting temperatures even though no herring are observed.  We are hopeful that local temperature profiles will help us better project what the water conditions are during the run.

Where are they????

Well, we started out pretty good, but the fish have seemed to disappear!  We think they are just hanging out in the warmer ocean water and they're waiting for the river to warm up a little bit.  We do monitor a site in Cotuit Bay that has a thermometer and the readings have been very low, 6-8 degrees C, so I think we're just playing a waiting game at this point.  They will return, eventually!

In the meantime, we have placed the box down at the site with the thermometer and a counter inside.  The lock is brand new, as is the thermometer.  We've had a few reports that the lock was not cooperating, so we oiled it this morning.  Just remember to push it in and then pull it out.  Let us know if you have any more problems.  The more it gets used, the looser it will become and easier to operate.

Also, when taking the temperature of the water, please be sure to leave the thermometer in the water for a few minutes.  That way we will get a more accurate reading.  And please don't handle the themermometer by the bottom.  Your body temperature can affect the reading.

So, just remember:  Every count counts!!!  Even all of the zero counts we've had all week.  Eventually, they will return!  And we will be waiting for them!

From an Alewive's Perspective....

Amazing underwater video taken at Mill Pond on first full day of the herring run....


Cinematographer Bob setting up for the above underwater shoot.   Photo courtesy of Betsey.

Fish counts to date are as follows:

3/21 - Partial Day - 6 Fish in 4 counting intervals
3/22 - 11 Fish
3/23 - 11 Fish, but we don't have all the reports in yet from the scheduled counters.

So, at least we are ahead of last year at the 3rd day, with 28 fish observed, and our first day was only a partial day.   We'll get a comparison to prior years spreadsheet pulled together in the next few days.

Thanks to all the counters for being so prompt with the observations to date!

"Keep your Eyes on the Board" - Training for New Counters

The following video shows the speed at which the alewives travel when they cross the herring run white board.  This scene was shot at the weir at Middle Pond, which is not where we are counting this year, but gives a good perspective on what to expect when a herring jumps across the board.  The perspective will be similar at the Mill Pond weir.

Slow Start, But....

We're starting slow, but the herring are on the move.  No fish observed in the early a.m. at Mill Pond, but then they started.  Today at mid-day the pool just below Middle Pond had some fish that had made it that far - see the video.

There were no alewives in the Middle Pond pool yesterday, so it looks like we have a clear path all the way.  Now they just need to send for their friends and family.....

We'd encourage you to subscribe to this blog so that you don't miss any of the action.  Also, please send any interesting observations, photos, or video links to herringcount@yahoo.com and we'll post them!

Herring Are Here! Oh My!

Well, not 5 minutes after our inaugural post, we received the news that the herring are here!   This run is starting exactly two weeks earlier than the earliest recorded run, which was April 4th, 2010.  There were definitely no fish observed at Mill Pond yesterday afternoon.  We went to Middle Pond earlier this afternoon to see if any herring have made it yet the full distance.  No signs of any fish in the last pool.  The water looks beautiful and the run looks great, with new grates and a new paint job on the last rung of the ladder.

The first count at Mill Pond took place at the 1:00 hour today, with two fish observed, but none made the jump during the counting interval.  However, we did have some observations later in the day -

Just before 3 p.m. - a fat seagull was perched right at the last rung with the white board, watching the water.  He was not happy to see me.... just after he flew off, I did observe one fish jumping the white board, but it was not counted since I did not start the 10 minute interval during the 2:00 hour.

3:00 hour - two fish cleared the rung during the counting interval, with another half dozen in the pool, lined up to go....

4:00 hour - three fish made the jump.

5:00 hour - one fish through.  There were more in the pool!

From prior years, big runs have occurred in Days 2 through 5, so we're scrambling to get a schedule together for the next few days.

We'll be posting a detailed schedule after our Herring Counter meeting at Liberty Hall on March 22 at 6:30 p.m.  We hope to get a good start to the schedule during that meeting.

2012 - Planning for an Early Run!

Welcome to the New Marstons Mills River Watershed Herring Count Blog!

We are deeply saddened with the untimely death of Kevin Galvin earlier this year.  Kevin was instrumental in setting up, coordinating, maintaining statistics, and providing colorful commentary both in person and in his blog re the Marstons Mills watershed herring counts each spring.  He has left us with big shoes to fill.  We're hoping to retrieve some of his background information and files at some point, but in the meantime the community at large knew Kevin would want to preserve and expand the data he started, so that we can all learn more about how best to preserve and protect our river herring.  Please click here to review his old posts from past years - they are very informative and entertaining.

Three Bays (www.3bays.org) has stepped in to fill the void, by working to coordinate this year's herring count on the Marstons Mills River.  I was a volunteer counter for the first time in 2011 after having moved full time to Cape Cod.  Knowing that the herring were likely going to start an early migration, I volunteered to help Three Bays coordinate this effort.   I'm no computer professional, like Kevin G, but can manage reasonably well around data.   I'm hoping I can help to continue what he started in a meaningful way.

The data for all herring run counts from 2006-2011 are shown here.

Mother Nature has been playing games with us all season, to the point where we haven't really had a winter.  It will be very interesting to see when the fish start running, and if last year's very small count was an anomaly, or is indicative of future trends.   Since we started officially counting herring using the MA state protocol in 2006, the earliest the herring run has started was April 4th.  We're pretty confident they'll be earlier than that this year.

Three Bays has a solid relationship with the Indian Ponds Association (www.indianponds.org), and there's a strong linkage to this project, since the river herring start in Prince Cove and travel through the Marstons Mills River to Middle Pond and Mystic Lake.  Please see an explanation of the counting to date and the route the herring travel in the IPA's winter 2012 newsletter posted here.

We are interested in trying to better project when the herring will start their run.  The alewives are known to begin their migration when the water temperatures reach nominally 51 F.   We searched around for a nearby south coast real time temperature sensor with some history, to see if we could start to develop a correlation to the start of the run.  The closest continuously recording temperature measurement we could access via NOAA data that had some history in the March/April time period was at the entrance to Eel Pond just west of Waquoit Bay in Falmouth.   This entrance is a deepwater inlet, and should be a good indication of the coastal seawater temperatures as they mix with the bay.  The red lines are 2010 data; blue lines are 2011 data, and the green line is 2012 to date as of this a.m.  Vertical lines show the first day of the Marstons Mills river herring run for each year.  (Click on graphs for full size view.)

There is also a sensor in Cotuit Bay, on the east side of the bay.  This sensor does not have historical data prior to 2011 in the March / April time frame.  The temperatures in Cotuit Bay very closely correlate to the Eel Pond inlet, albeit a couple of degrees warmer, since it is further from the ocean inlet.

In both cases, the sensors show variations in the temperatures, which reflect the impact of tides.  The peak water temperatures this time of year occur at low tide, when the bays are the shallowest.  The low daily water temperatures occur at high tide and reflect the colder incoming ocean water mixing with the warmer bay water.

In all cases, yesterday's warm water at both Cotuit Bay and Eel Pond well exceeds 51 F.  In the last two years, the Marstons Mills river herring run started on the second day the peak temperature at Eel Pond exceeded 51 F.

So where are the herring now?  Are they ready to go, or do they know something we don't know?