The Long Awaited Year to Year Comparisons!

Well, we are now two weeks into our 2013 count.  With the cooler weather, the run has cooled off a bit, so we're taking the time to update our database.  We were not as prompt in our preparations as the herring were in starting the run.  Anyhow, we've now updated our comparisons to previous years for interest.  The Year to Year Comparisons are located on the Home Screen Link, which is here.

While we have a good start, officially the daily numbers are not as high as previously reported....

Why is that?

In the enthusiasm of the count over the last week, we've had lots of volunteers filling all twelve slots.  When we actually do 12 counts/day, we have to discount them slightly to better follow the state statistical model.  We ideally have three slots filled in every 4 hour window to maintain a 2 way, 3 period, stratified random sample.  Wow - sure sounds like a lot of statistical mumbo jumbo!  It is a bit; however, the state experts have verified that this model will help them better project the actual numbers that pass through our run, since there are also herring that run outside the 12 hour window that we are tracking, as well as the other 50 minutes in each hour.  So by randomly getting 9 counts in 12 hours, with the missed hours being sprinkled throughout the day, not just at the beginning or end of the day, it is more likely that our 90 minutes of daily counts (nine 10 minute counts) will extrapolate to a reasonably accurate projection of a "true" daily count, since we don't have the resources to count continuously.

So while the peak daily count reported on April 10 was for more than 300 fish, that was for 12 intervals, or 120 minutes of counts, so it has been adjusted to 237 fish to reflect 90 minutes of statistical counts.

By properly tracking these adjustments, the state will then extrapolate our 90 minutes of daily data for a complete daily count.

Are there any budding scientists out there who want to learn more?  Drop us a comment and we'll share the state protocol with you, so that you can help calculate the "real" numbers of herring!