The counts over the weekend dropped off substantially - is this a cool weather slowdown, or are we close to the end? After counts of 300+/day for 2-1/2 weeks, we've dropped to double digit counts daily totals for the last two days. We're above 8400 total and counting....
We'll see how this plays out as the weather warms up again later in the week.
Monday, April 30, 2012
Friday, April 27, 2012
Day 38: 8000+... Let's go for 10,000+ and Double the 2008 Run!
Every time we think the run is finally dropping off, we have another flurry of big counts! With tonight's cooler weather, we may start slow tomorrow, but it seems like every sunny day has great numbers.
The main question we're now getting as we continue to schedule counters is - "How long will this run last?" If only we could answer that question - and others like "Is this the beginning of a revival of the river herring?" It's only through the efforts of people like the dedicated counters supporting this run, and other herring runs around the state (and Northeast) that will help to answer these questions.
Our main source of information re run lengths, etc continues to be the Year to Year comparison sheet. The latest a run started since we started keeping these records from 2006, was an April 20th start. This run ran for 28 days. The longest previous run we've logged was 37 days in 2008. We're wrapping up the count for Day 38 - even if you discount the 10 days we took off, it's still a significant run length, and is breaking all the cumulative run records each day. In all the previous years, the count dropped off to double digits for several days, and then single digits. We're still recording triple digit days EVERY DAY, so it may go on for a few more weeks - who knows?
The main question we're now getting as we continue to schedule counters is - "How long will this run last?" If only we could answer that question - and others like "Is this the beginning of a revival of the river herring?" It's only through the efforts of people like the dedicated counters supporting this run, and other herring runs around the state (and Northeast) that will help to answer these questions.
Our main source of information re run lengths, etc continues to be the Year to Year comparison sheet. The latest a run started since we started keeping these records from 2006, was an April 20th start. This run ran for 28 days. The longest previous run we've logged was 37 days in 2008. We're wrapping up the count for Day 38 - even if you discount the 10 days we took off, it's still a significant run length, and is breaking all the cumulative run records each day. In all the previous years, the count dropped off to double digits for several days, and then single digits. We're still recording triple digit days EVERY DAY, so it may go on for a few more weeks - who knows?
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Day 36: We've easily passed 7000 today! Can we do 8000?
The cumulative total grows by leaps and bounds of herring leaping across the Mill Pond ladder! Every day since the restart of the count, we've had at least one triple digit count for 10 minutes, and the trend continues! It's not too late to get in on the fun - we had slowed down the scheduling after this weekend, but I think we'll have more fish into next week at the rate they keep coming! Please keep tabs of the daily counts on the Year to Year Comparison page, located here.
For those of you who have been counting regularly, you may not have noticed the old herring run about 200ft north of the current run, immediately adjacent to the Galvin property. Take a look at it when you next count - there's fish there as well!
Many thanks to Bob N, Betsey and Bob P for sending in the following photos of the old ladder!
For those of you who have been counting regularly, you may not have noticed the old herring run about 200ft north of the current run, immediately adjacent to the Galvin property. Take a look at it when you next count - there's fish there as well!
Many thanks to Bob N, Betsey and Bob P for sending in the following photos of the old ladder!
 |
| Bob N's View - 18Apr2012 - Note the fish! |
 |
| Betsey's View - 19April2012 - Fish in the pool! |
 |
| Bob P's View - 24April2012 |
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
6500+ and Still a Substantial Run....
The 2012 run is slowing down a little, but still not showing signs of stopping. We've only had one zero count in one hour since we restarted the count on 4/12, and we continue to have triple digit days, including today with partial data.
Will we observe 7000 fish or more?
Will we observe 7000 fish or more?
Sunday, April 22, 2012
6000+ Fish Counted by Earth Day 2012!
The weekend results are not yet fully reported, but we exceeded 6000 fish observations on Earth Day 2012! The fish continue to be running, with at least a couple hundred observed again today.
Let's revisit our counts, and project the daily total count, assuming the 10 minute profiles are a good approximation of each hour of fish migration. For our peak day of 1483 fish over 90 minutes, that equates to 11,864 fish over 12 hours!
But that cannot be, you say? Some of those fish were falling backward and were being double counted during the peak hours! That's true - however, the fish were clearly running for more than 12 hours each day. We had 70 fish logged in our 7 am count, and 100 fish logged in our 6 pm count that day, so those fish may have been jumping all night!
It's a safe bet that well over 12,000 fish jumped into the Mill Pond on that peak day! We'll never know how many more than that there were, but that means there are tens of thousands of herring in Middle Pond and Mystic Lake now!
It's wonderful news!
Let's revisit our counts, and project the daily total count, assuming the 10 minute profiles are a good approximation of each hour of fish migration. For our peak day of 1483 fish over 90 minutes, that equates to 11,864 fish over 12 hours!
But that cannot be, you say? Some of those fish were falling backward and were being double counted during the peak hours! That's true - however, the fish were clearly running for more than 12 hours each day. We had 70 fish logged in our 7 am count, and 100 fish logged in our 6 pm count that day, so those fish may have been jumping all night!
It's a safe bet that well over 12,000 fish jumped into the Mill Pond on that peak day! We'll never know how many more than that there were, but that means there are tens of thousands of herring in Middle Pond and Mystic Lake now!
It's wonderful news!
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Still hundreds per Day!
Yesterday we edged our total up to more than 100 Times as many fish as we observed in 2011, and we are at essentially 270% of the average of the last six years' fish count. The year to year totals are posted here. We are still at a nice steady flow of herring moving up the river today. No more daily high records, but every day continues to be a significant triple digit count. We've exceeded 5800 fish observations!
The saltwater temps have been above 57F for a few days now - see updated chart here - so the current migration includes the bluebacks (or is maybe all bluebacks?)
The saltwater temps have been above 57F for a few days now - see updated chart here - so the current migration includes the bluebacks (or is maybe all bluebacks?)
Friday, April 20, 2012
New Cumulative Run total record set today!
Things are slightly slower each day, but we're still seeing respectable daily totals in the hundreds of fish. The new cumulative run peak was set sometime around mid-day today - today's counts are still trickling in.
We know the weather is going to degrade this weekend. It's still important for the counters to still make their counts, even if it's a nasty day....we'll shut down the count fairly quickly when the count drops to zero, as we'll know it's over.
This weekend we'll be developing a new post with some pictures of the older herring run, immediately adjacent to the Galvin property. Herring have been observed on both sides of this derelict ladder, so we're presuming some herring are traversing this more difficult route to the ponds. If anyone has some good historic information, please let us know at herringcount@yahoo.com.
We'll also post some projections re the total size of the run to date - not just the 90 minutes of actual counts.
Stay tuned!
We know the weather is going to degrade this weekend. It's still important for the counters to still make their counts, even if it's a nasty day....we'll shut down the count fairly quickly when the count drops to zero, as we'll know it's over.
This weekend we'll be developing a new post with some pictures of the older herring run, immediately adjacent to the Galvin property. Herring have been observed on both sides of this derelict ladder, so we're presuming some herring are traversing this more difficult route to the ponds. If anyone has some good historic information, please let us know at herringcount@yahoo.com.
We'll also post some projections re the total size of the run to date - not just the 90 minutes of actual counts.
Stay tuned!
Thursday, April 19, 2012
63 Fish Shy of the 2008 Record....
We've had two great days since our massive count of 4/17/12. The counts have dropped off a bit since that amazing day, but still are very impressive totals. 4/18 had a total of 695 fish, and today, 4/19, is complete with 426 fish observed.
Some of the counters this morning sounded disappointed with their counts -
"Fish counted: 3 (three!)"
"I counted only 11 fish in my time slot"
Before you think these counts are disappointing, think about the counts last year.... I counted seven times and counted a total of 2 (two!) fish. I think my counts were as good or better than average for the 53 TOTAL fish observed over 20 days last year.
The Current Run and year to year comparison page is up to date, and shows we are only 63 fish shy of breaking the 2008 cumulative total. At the rate the fish are pouring in, we should break the record by mid-day on Friday, 4/20!
Keep them coming!
Some of the counters this morning sounded disappointed with their counts -
"Fish counted: 3 (three!)"
"I counted only 11 fish in my time slot"
Before you think these counts are disappointing, think about the counts last year.... I counted seven times and counted a total of 2 (two!) fish. I think my counts were as good or better than average for the 53 TOTAL fish observed over 20 days last year.
The Current Run and year to year comparison page is up to date, and shows we are only 63 fish shy of breaking the 2008 cumulative total. At the rate the fish are pouring in, we should break the record by mid-day on Friday, 4/20!
Keep them coming!
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
4/17/12 - A Day Not to be Forgotten!
Tuesday, 4/17/12 is an unprecedented day, and great news for local outdoorsmen and fish enthusiasts in general. The data for the date is all in, complete, and adjusted per the state protocols. We observed 1483 herring make the jump in 90 minutes of counting!!
The largest single count was made during the 3 pm hour, when 366 fish were counted. The second highest count was made at 2 pm when 342 fish were observed. 267 fish were counted during the 4 pm count!
Several counters have noted that the herring typically become sexually mature in nominally four years, so it is highly likely that many of these herring are the successful descendents of the herring that traveled and spawned in April 2008.
The 4/18 count is not yet complete, and will definitely NOT lead to another daily record. I think it may be difficult to replicate that feat again, but who knows? We are well on our way to have a cumulative record that exceeds the 2008 banner year - who would have guessed that was possible a week ago? Not me!
I'll be working behind the scenes to develop some interesting additional data and statistics to start to document this memorable run.
Thanks to all the counters for being so prompt in reporting this valuable data to date. We're obviously still not done, and would appreciate more counters volunteering for the coming weekend and into next week. Maybe these are just the alewives, and we'll have a second wave of bluebacks - who knows?
Kevin G would have reveled in all of this....perhaps he had something to do with it?!
The largest single count was made during the 3 pm hour, when 366 fish were counted. The second highest count was made at 2 pm when 342 fish were observed. 267 fish were counted during the 4 pm count!
Several counters have noted that the herring typically become sexually mature in nominally four years, so it is highly likely that many of these herring are the successful descendents of the herring that traveled and spawned in April 2008.
The 4/18 count is not yet complete, and will definitely NOT lead to another daily record. I think it may be difficult to replicate that feat again, but who knows? We are well on our way to have a cumulative record that exceeds the 2008 banner year - who would have guessed that was possible a week ago? Not me!
I'll be working behind the scenes to develop some interesting additional data and statistics to start to document this memorable run.
Thanks to all the counters for being so prompt in reporting this valuable data to date. We're obviously still not done, and would appreciate more counters volunteering for the coming weekend and into next week. Maybe these are just the alewives, and we'll have a second wave of bluebacks - who knows?
Kevin G would have reveled in all of this....perhaps he had something to do with it?!
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
New Daily Record!
On Monday, 4/16, we shattered the single peak day record for 9 counts set in 2008! That previous high count for a single day was 588 fish observed in nine 10 minute counts. The new daily peak is 828 fish for nine 10 minute counts! With the partial results in for today (4/17), we have counted nearly 4000 fish in less than a week of counting!
And still they keep coming and coming! Today's numbers are still trickling in (unlike the fish!), but we are on track to well top Monday's daily count for yet another record - >1300 fish! I think the late afternoon counters are all still in shock.....we have two counts this afternoon well exceeding 300 fish for 10 minutes!
It's a real challenge to count the fish when there are so many - what a nice problem to have! The whole town is enjoying the great news! Parking can be a challenge, particularly in the afternoon hours, so plan accordingly to make your count in your scheduled hour.
One of our rookie counters took her brother, a lifelong Cape Codder, to the Middle Pond flume to see the herring on 4/13. He had never seen the flume before, and he's a very talented photographer.
He has agreed to share with us his amazing photos of our record breaking run here! (Click on a photo for a full size view, and then right or left to advance or go back.)
Also, please keep current with our year to year statistics here! I had to reformat the page to allow for a daily four digit entry!
And still they keep coming and coming! Today's numbers are still trickling in (unlike the fish!), but we are on track to well top Monday's daily count for yet another record - >1300 fish! I think the late afternoon counters are all still in shock.....we have two counts this afternoon well exceeding 300 fish for 10 minutes!
It's a real challenge to count the fish when there are so many - what a nice problem to have! The whole town is enjoying the great news! Parking can be a challenge, particularly in the afternoon hours, so plan accordingly to make your count in your scheduled hour.
One of our rookie counters took her brother, a lifelong Cape Codder, to the Middle Pond flume to see the herring on 4/13. He had never seen the flume before, and he's a very talented photographer.
He has agreed to share with us his amazing photos of our record breaking run here! (Click on a photo for a full size view, and then right or left to advance or go back.)
Also, please keep current with our year to year statistics here! I had to reformat the page to allow for a daily four digit entry!
Monday, April 16, 2012
Hundreds Every Day!
Since we resumed the count last week, we have logged more than 300 fish making the jump each day! Saturday had the highest daily log of this year's run, with nearly 500 fish logged as the daily entry. We have now broken every year's total run (since 2006) except the 2008 banner year of >5000 fish!
2008 logged 5000+ fish in 37 days of counting. We have logged more than 2000 fish in less than six days of counting, and they're still coming!
Please see the updated year to year comparison here.
For those who have not made it to see the Middle Pond flume this year, you are missing an incredible sight - hundreds of fish for as far as you can see! The following is a video clip showing both the above and below water views of the flume on Friday, 4/13. The flume has continued with hundreds of fish throughout the weekend and into today. We would encourage you to take a look in person sometime soon!
2008 logged 5000+ fish in 37 days of counting. We have logged more than 2000 fish in less than six days of counting, and they're still coming!
Please see the updated year to year comparison here.
For those who have not made it to see the Middle Pond flume this year, you are missing an incredible sight - hundreds of fish for as far as you can see! The following is a video clip showing both the above and below water views of the flume on Friday, 4/13. The flume has continued with hundreds of fish throughout the weekend and into today. We would encourage you to take a look in person sometime soon!
Friday, April 13, 2012
Triple Digit Back to Back Runs!
The data is still trickling in from the first two days of a renewed count, but we had 378 fish observed in seven 10 minute counts on Thursday, and we've exceeded 300 as well today! It started slow each day, but as the day moved on, the fish kept coming! We've had more fish observed per day (with partial data only!) in the last three days than we had in any single day in the last two years! We've exceeded the totals for both 2010 and 2011! The single day counts for the last two days are larger than any single day counts we've had since the counting was formalized, other than the banner year of 2008!
The year to year comparison is shown here. (Click on graph to get a full size view)
The area shaded in green is the period when the count was suspended. We did get some occasional reports from some observers when the temperatures briefly supported the migration. Partial incomplete data is shown in red.
The values currently shown are actual values. The statistical analysis will need to adjust a couple of the daily totals to reflect the state model.
On our first full day of the resumed count, the largest two counts of the day were done by one of our rookie counters. After standing in the cold last week for a couple of zero counts, please see her email re yesterday's count:
"Very wild afternoon at the herring run. Fish were going over the gate and under the gate, multiple fish were falling back down and then going over again. Children were leaping and laughing, adults were interested and trying to talk to me. Blackbacked gulls and osprey were gorging. I really tried hard to get 2 accurate counts (and enlist 2 future counters for the next generation). Anyhow here's what I got:
151 for the 3pm
124 for the 4pm
58 degrees F
Here's a little shout out to Valentina & Richard, 2 wonderful youngsters that helped me count out loud as the fish went shooting by. It was an excellent adventure for all of us. "
Believe it or not, her peak count was exceeded this afternoon by a new count from another counter for one 10 minute interval!
We would highly recommend all interested parties take a look at the flume entering Middle Pond this weekend. Today it was full of fish, as far as you could see! Stay tuned for a video from that view later this weekend!
The year to year comparison is shown here. (Click on graph to get a full size view)
The area shaded in green is the period when the count was suspended. We did get some occasional reports from some observers when the temperatures briefly supported the migration. Partial incomplete data is shown in red.
The values currently shown are actual values. The statistical analysis will need to adjust a couple of the daily totals to reflect the state model.
On our first full day of the resumed count, the largest two counts of the day were done by one of our rookie counters. After standing in the cold last week for a couple of zero counts, please see her email re yesterday's count:
"Very wild afternoon at the herring run. Fish were going over the gate and under the gate, multiple fish were falling back down and then going over again. Children were leaping and laughing, adults were interested and trying to talk to me. Blackbacked gulls and osprey were gorging. I really tried hard to get 2 accurate counts (and enlist 2 future counters for the next generation). Anyhow here's what I got:
151 for the 3pm
124 for the 4pm
58 degrees F
Here's a little shout out to Valentina & Richard, 2 wonderful youngsters that helped me count out loud as the fish went shooting by. It was an excellent adventure for all of us. "
Believe it or not, her peak count was exceeded this afternoon by a new count from another counter for one 10 minute interval!
We would highly recommend all interested parties take a look at the flume entering Middle Pond this weekend. Today it was full of fish, as far as you could see! Stay tuned for a video from that view later this weekend!
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Now we've got a run!
After a quiet week off, the herring have really started the run in earnest today! Too bad we didn't start the official count a day earlier!
96 Herring were observed making the final jump in two 10 minute intervals this afternoon and early evening! This number exceeds our 2011 total observation of 53 total fish over a 20 day period!
Hurray! I'll show a quick summary of all the observations to date this year in tomorrow's blog post, but wanted to get the word out to all the counters that the fish are running now! Please make sure to check the open slots and let us know if you can help us meet the 9 counts/day.
96 Herring were observed making the final jump in two 10 minute intervals this afternoon and early evening! This number exceeds our 2011 total observation of 53 total fish over a 20 day period!
Hurray! I'll show a quick summary of all the observations to date this year in tomorrow's blog post, but wanted to get the word out to all the counters that the fish are running now! Please make sure to check the open slots and let us know if you can help us meet the 9 counts/day.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Let's try again!!
So, we're gonna try again!! We've been noticing that we have sporadically had fish coming through, so we may as well take those into consideration. So, beginning on Thursday, April 12th, we will start the count up again. For those of you already on the schedule, we are assuming you will pick up where we left off. If you can't make any of the scheduled counts, please let us know! For everyone else, we are in need of counters over the weekend. We need:
We have split the day into 3 equal 4 hour sections:
7:00-10:00am is the morning section
11:00-2:00 is the afternoon section
3:00-6:00 is the evening section
On Thursday, April 12th - we need one counter in the evening section
On Friday, April 13th - we need 1 in the afternoon section and 2 in the evening section
On Saturday, April 14th - we need 3 in the afternoon and 2 in the evening
On Sunday, April 15th - we need 1 in the morning, 2 in the afternoon and 2 in the evening
On Monday, April 16th - we need one in the afternoon and 1 in the evening
For the rest of the schedule, we are wide open so please look and try to cover as many counts as you can please! We realize that we may still have a lot of zero counts for the beginning of the run, but hopefully the water will warm up soon!!
HAPPY COUNTING!!!!
We have split the day into 3 equal 4 hour sections:
7:00-10:00am is the morning section
11:00-2:00 is the afternoon section
3:00-6:00 is the evening section
On Thursday, April 12th - we need one counter in the evening section
On Friday, April 13th - we need 1 in the afternoon section and 2 in the evening section
On Saturday, April 14th - we need 3 in the afternoon and 2 in the evening
On Sunday, April 15th - we need 1 in the morning, 2 in the afternoon and 2 in the evening
On Monday, April 16th - we need one in the afternoon and 1 in the evening
For the rest of the schedule, we are wide open so please look and try to cover as many counts as you can please! We realize that we may still have a lot of zero counts for the beginning of the run, but hopefully the water will warm up soon!!
HAPPY COUNTING!!!!
Monday, April 9, 2012
Still Waiting....
Well, it's been over a week since we officially suspended the count, and we probably should have suspended it even earlier. We continue to monitor the seawater temps in an effort to estimate the most probable restart of the herring run. Seawater temps in Cotuit Bay are essentially identical to what they were for this date in 2011, and the 2011 run started on April 17th. We have received reports of herring on April 5 from two different observers, and we also had an observation of some herring late today. We have posted the latest temperature plots here - it is very interesting to note that the herring made the trek at the same time the water temps at Cotuit Bay just touched 51F on April 5 and April 9. With the cloudy weather forecast for the next few days, we will likely continue to watch and wait before restarting the count in earnest.
There has been one herring gull parked at the top of the Mill Pond ladder at some times over the holiday weekend, and today we received a report of an osprey looking around, so hopefully they are good indicators of a restart of the run.
We appreciate those counters who check in occasionally with reports, to help us better assess the local situation, even when no fish are observed.
There has been one herring gull parked at the top of the Mill Pond ladder at some times over the holiday weekend, and today we received a report of an osprey looking around, so hopefully they are good indicators of a restart of the run.
We appreciate those counters who check in occasionally with reports, to help us better assess the local situation, even when no fish are observed.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Counting to be suspended...for awhile!
Well, it's been over a week and no herring have been spotted. We kept hoping that they would miraculously show up and we'd have a great year! But, no such luck. So, we are going to suspend the counting, for now. But, be prepared for them to come back! We think that they are just offshore waiting for the water temps to go back up. The temperature in Cotuit Bay has been very cold!!!
We will keep the schedule as is, and when they do come back, we'll just pick up where we left off. In the meantime, if anyone is curious, please feel free to stop by the run and have a look. Even take the temperature of the water and let us know!
We'll be in touch and let you know what is going on...
We will keep the schedule as is, and when they do come back, we'll just pick up where we left off. In the meantime, if anyone is curious, please feel free to stop by the run and have a look. Even take the temperature of the water and let us know!
We'll be in touch and let you know what is going on...
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Saltwater Temps
Still no herring today - bummer.
We've added another new page with the plots of both Cotuit Bay and Eel Pond (Waquoit Bay, Falmouth) for us to further analyze to see if we can better assess when the temperatures may be conducive to the return of the herring. While the weather seems to finally be improving somewhat, Eel Pond is now a bit cooler than it was at the same time in 2010. Cotuit is now as cold as it was almost 3 weeks ago.
For a view of the plots, please go to the new Page called "Saltwater Temps". We'll be updating this page periodically throughout this period.
We've added another new page with the plots of both Cotuit Bay and Eel Pond (Waquoit Bay, Falmouth) for us to further analyze to see if we can better assess when the temperatures may be conducive to the return of the herring. While the weather seems to finally be improving somewhat, Eel Pond is now a bit cooler than it was at the same time in 2010. Cotuit is now as cold as it was almost 3 weeks ago.
For a view of the plots, please go to the new Page called "Saltwater Temps". We'll be updating this page periodically throughout this period.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)